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CAPITALSTARS – MCX COMMODITY MARKET NEWS & LEVELS – 9 OCT 2018

Commodities-Market-1

Gold dips to one-week low as investors seek refuge in dollar.

Gold fell to its lowest level in a week on Monday as investors sought safety in the U.S. dollar on concerns about a selloff in global stocks worsened by worries over economic growth in China. “The strong U.S. dollar and expectations of more interest rate hikes are pushing gold down and scaring gold investors. Even the Italian risk and a weakness in equities is not pushing investors to buy gold,” said Carlo Alberto De Casa, chief analyst at Active Trades. Despite the losses, gold has held in a $34 range for the last 1-1/2 months, which some analysts say suggests resilience, worries over the damage to emerging market economies from higher U.S. interest rates has spurred safe-haven bidding.

The recent US-Mexico-Canada Agreement will also put China’s exports under pressure.

London copper rebounded to a high of $6,224.5/mt from a low of $6,126/mt on Monday. This helped it stand firmly above the 20-day moving average. The SHFE 1811 contract reversed some gains overnight after hitting a high of 50,320 yuan/mt, which was near the five-day moving average. China’s actions, including a steep cut in the amount of cash that banks must hold as reserves, quickening special bond issuance for shanty-town redevelopment, an increase in export tax rebates from November 1, supported copper prices in the domestic market. Stocks at home and abroad continued their declines. We expect LME copper to trade at $6,170-6,230/mt with the SHFE 1811 contract at 50,000-50,500 yuan/mt. Spot premiums are seen at 40-80 yuan/mt.

LME inventories continued to decline but on a smaller scale.

London nickel received support after falling to a low of $12,400/mt when the US dollar inched down. Inventories across LME warehouses declined 1,326 mt to 226,476 mt. The SHFE 1811 contract broke resistance at the 105,000 yuan/mt level but limited upward momentum is seen as both supply and demand grow domestically. We forecast LME nickel to hover around $12,600/mt today, with the SHFE 1811 contract trading at 103,000-105,000 yuan/mt. Spot prices are set at 103,500-110,000 yuan/mt today.

Oil prices rise on signs that Iranian crude exports fall further.

Oil prices rose on Tuesday as more evidence emerged that crude exports from Iran, OPEC’s third-largest producer, are declining in the run-up to the re-imposition of U.S. sanctions and as a hurricane moved across the Gulf of Mexico. Iran’s crude exports fell further in the first week of October, according to tanker data and an industry source, as buyers are seeking alternatives ahead of the start of the U.S. sanctions on Nov. 4 and creating a challenge to other OPEC oil producers as they seek to cover the shortfall. Islamic Republic exported 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude in that seven-day period, Refinitiv Eikon data showed. An industry source who also tracks exports said October shipments were so far below 1 million bpd.

Precious Metals

CS GOLD (DEC) OVERVIEW:
TREND : SIDEWAYS
RESIST 2: 31600
RESIST 1: 31450
SUP 1: 31200
SUP 2: 31100

CS SILVER (DEC) OVERVIEW:
TREND : SIDEWAYS
RESIST 2: 39000
RESIST 1: 38700
SUP 1: 38500
SUP 2: 38300

Base Metals

CS COPPER (NOV) OVERVIEW:
TREND : BULLISH
RESIST 2: 460.00
RESIST 1: 455.00
SUP 1: 450.00
SUP 2: 445.00

CS NICKEL (OCT) OVERVIEW:
TREND : BULLISH
RESIST 2: 945.00
RESIST 1: 935.00
SUP 1: 922.00
SUP 2: 910.00

CS ZINC (OCT) OVERVIEW:
TREND : BULLISH
RESIST 2: 201.00
RESIST 1: 197.00
SUP 1: 194.00
SUP 2: 190.00

CS LEAD (OCT) OVERVIEW:
TREND : SIDEWAYS
RESIST 2: 151.00
RESIST 1: 148.00
SUP 1: 147.00
SUP 2: 145.00

CS ALUMINIUM (OCT) OVERVIEW:
TREND : BEARISH
RESIST 2: 155.00
RESIST 1: 153.00
SUP 1: 150.00
SUP 2: 148.00

Energies

CS CRUDE OIL (OCT) OVERVIEW:
TREND : BULLISH
RESIST 2: 5550
RESIST 1: 5500
SUP 1: 5450
SUP 2: 5400

CS NATURAL GAS (OCT) OVERVIEW:
TREND : BULLISH
RESIST 2: 245.00
RESIST 1: 242.00
SUP 1: 235.00
SUP 2: 232.00

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