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CAPITALSTARS – MCX COMMODITY MARKET NEWS & LEVELS – 04 DEC 2018

Commodities-Market-1

Gold hits over 1-month high on easing dollar.

Gold prices rose on Tuesday, after hitting a more than one-month high earlier in the session, as the dollar stumbled after the United States and China agreed to a temporary truce in their trade conflict that rattled global markets. “Dollar weakness is primarily driving gold prices higher,” said Benjamin Lu, a commodities analyst at Phillip Futures. “Markets seem little doubtful about the success of this Sino-U.S. trade war truce… It seems a bit cautious,” Lu added. The dollar weakened against its major peers on Tuesday, as the thaw in trade tensions between Washington and Beijing supported investor confidence though concerns about the fragility of the truce capped wider gains in risk assets. Analysts now expect market focus to move to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. Markets are expecting a fourth rate hike at its Dec. 18-19 meeting. Gold has fallen about 10 percent from a peak in April as investors preferred the dollar as safe haven, with U.S.-China trade friction unfolding against a backdrop of higher U.S. interest rates.

Copper prices are expected to stay at highs as a ceasefire in the US-China trade war.

London copper fell to close at $6,250/mt overnight after it climbed to a high of $6,328.5/mt. Despite an initial increase to a high of 50,370 yuan/mt, the SHFE 1902 contract fell into negative territory to close at 49,910 yuan/mt overnight. Copper prices are expected to stay at highs as a ceasefire in the US-China trade war, the Fed’s dovish tone and expected oil supply cuts prompt investors to shun safe-haven US currency and to turn to riskier assets. LME copper is likely to trade at $6,230-6,280/mt today with the SHFE 1902 contract at 49,800-50,250 yuan/mt. Spot premiums are seen at 100-200 yuan/mt.

Weak domestic fundamentals could provide nickel with limited upward momentum.

London nickel fluctuated to close at $11,195/mt overnight. The SHFE 1901 contract regained some losses to end at 91,500 yuan/mt after it fell to a low of 91,080 yuan/mt. Weak domestic fundamentals could provide SHFE nickel with limited upward momentum. We expect LME nickel to hover around $11,200/mt today with the SHFE 1901 contract at 91,000-92,500 yuan/mt. Spot prices are seen at 91,500-100,500 yuan/mt.

Oil prices extend gains on expected OPEC-led supply cuts.

Oil prices rose on Tuesday, extending strong gains from the previous day amid expected OPEC-led supply cuts and a mandated reduction in Canadian output. The 90-day truce in the trade dispute between the United States and China was also still supporting markets, traders said. Both crude benchmarks climbed by around 4 percent the previous session after Washington and Beijing agreed a truce in their trade disputes and said they would negotiate for 90 days before taking any further action. Middle East dominated Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will on Dec. 6 meet at its headquarters in Vienna, Austria, to agree a joint output policy. “A cut in OPEC and Russia production of 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) will be required to reverse the ongoing counter-seasonally large increase in inventories,” the bank said. It added that it expected a joint effort by OPEC and Russia to withhold supply to push Brent oil prices “above the mid-$60 per barrel level”.

Precious Metals

CS GOLD (FEB) OVERVIEW:
TREND : BULLISH
RESIST 2: 31100
RESIST 1: 31000
SUP 1: 30800
SUP 2: 30700

CS SILVER (MAR) OVERVIEW:
TREND : BULLISH
RESIST 2: 37300
RESIST 1: 37100
SUP 1: 37000
SUP 2: 36800

Base Metals

CS COPPER (FEB) OVERVIEW:
TREND : BULLISH
RESIST 2:446.00
RESIST 1:442.00
SUP 1: 434.00
SUP 2: 430.00

CS NICKEL (NOV) OVERVIEW:
TREND : BULLISH
RESIST 2: 800.00
RESIST 1: 790.00
SUP 1: 780.00
SUP 2: 770.00

CS ZINC (DEC) OVERVIEW:
TREND : BULLISH
RESIST 2:186.00
RESIST 1:184.00
SUP 1: 182.00
SUP 2: 180.00

CS LEAD (NOV) OVERVIEW:
TREND : SIDEWAYS
RESIST 2: 141.00
RESIST 1: 139.00
SUP 1: 137.00
SUP 2: 135.00

CS ALUMINIUM (NOV) OVERVIEW:
TREND : SIDEWAYS
RESIST 2: 142.00
RESIST 1: 140.50
SUP 1: 139.00
SUP 2: 138.00

Energies

CS CRUDE OIL (DEC) OVERVIEW:
TREND : BULLISH
RESIST 2: 3850
RESIST 1: 3800
SUP 1: 3700
SUP 2: 3650

CS NATURAL GAS (DEC) OVERVIEW:
TREND : BEARISH
RESIST 2: 325.00
RESIST 1: 320.00
SUP 1: 315.00
SUP 2: 310.00

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