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CAPITALSTARS – MCX COMMODITY MARKET LEVELS – 18 MAR 2019

Commodities-Market-1

MCX Gold Falls Under Rs 32K As INR Appreciates Sharply
COMEX Gold futures managed to hold onto their recent gains after a break above $1300 per ounce as the yellow metal eyed an uptick in fund buying and ideas that Indian demand would be strong in coming wedding season. The global equities witnessed a rather tepid movement following surge in first two months of the year and Gold seems to be benefiting from it. The yellow metal closed at $1302 per ounce.

Gold has been also supported on tepid Chinese economic data. Some traders are also eyeing a pickup in global commodity prices. Base metals and crude oil futures have been elevated in recent weeks and now there is evidence that the agri commodity prices are also on an upward trajectory. The FAO Food Price Index (FFPI) averaged 167.5 points in February 2019, up 2.7 points (1.7%) from January. While the February value of the FFPI marked its highest level since August 2018, it remained nearly 4 points (2.3%) below its level in the corresponding month last year.

Prices of all commodities represented in the FFPI rose in February, with sharp increases registered for dairy prices. Rising commodity prices generally tend to result in a flare up of inflationary pressures and are seen as supportive for the Gold prices. Meanwhile, the MCX Gold futures broke under Rs 32000 per 10 grams and closed just above Rs 31800 per 10 grams as the Indian Rupee soared to around seven month high, topping 69 per US dollar levels.

Crude Stays Supported, MCX Futures Break Above Rs 4K
WTI Crude oil futures scaled up further, hitting fresh four month highs on continued buying support. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) noted that the US production is forecast lower in both 2019 and 2020 compared with the February forecast, despite an expected increase in pipeline capacity to move crude oil out of the Permian region. The US active oil rig count reached a 10-month low of 834 rigs as of March 8, suggesting the rate of US crude oil production growth could slow further. Although lower than the February forecast, EIA still forecasts US crude oil production to increase by 1.3 million b/d in 2019 and 0.7 million b/d in 2020. This is likely to keep oil elevated in near term as the OPEC uncertainty stays in place. Strength in global equities is also working in favor of the commodity. WTI Crude oil futures surged well above $58.62 per barrel following excellent buying support. MCX Crude oil futures also jumped as a break above Rs 4000 per barrel mark extended.

Copper Slips Under Rs 450 Level On MCX
COMEX Copper futures eased last week on weak Chinese economic data. The red metal had edged up earlier on media reports that major global producer Codelco is facing delays in bringing back refined copper smelting at its Chuquicamata plant. However, China’s industrial output rose by 5.3% year on year in the first two months of this year, recording its lowest level in 17 months. The foreign trade data has also been week for the world’s second largest economy and COMEX Copper found it difficult to hold onto gains amid these cues. The commodity ended around $2.90 per pound. MCX Copper futures fell under Rs 450 per kg levels and ended around Rs 446 per kg with the strength in INR keeping a further check on the metal.

Precious Metals
CS GOLD (APR) OVERVIEW:
TREND : BEARISH
RESIST 2: 32000
RESIST 1: 31900
SUP 1: 31700
SUP 2: 31600

CS SILVER (MAY) OVERVIEW:
TREND : BEARISH
RESIST 2: 38500
RESIST 1: 38300
SUP 1: 38000
SUP 2: 37800

Base Metals
CS COPPER (APR) OVERVIEW:
TREND : BEARISH
RESIST 2: 452.00
RESIST 1: 449.00
SUP 1: 443.00
SUP 2: 440.00
CS NICKEL (MAR) OVERVIEW:
TREND : SIDEWAYS
RESIST 2: 900.00
RESIST 1: 894.00
SUP 1: 885.00
SUP 2: 882.00

CS ZINC (MAR) OVERVIEW:
TREND : BEARISH
RESIST 2: 201.00
RESIST 1: 198.00
SUP 1: 193.00
SUP 2: 191.00

CS LEAD (MAR) OVERVIEW:
TREND : BEARISH
RESIST 2: 147.00
RESIST 1: 144.00
SUP 1: 140.00
SUP 2: 138.00

CS ALUMINIUM (MAR) OVERVIEW:
TREND : SIDEWAYS
RESIST 2: 147.00
RESIST 1: 146.00
SUP 1: 144.00
SUP 2: 143.00

Energy
CS CRUDE OIL (MAR) OVERVIEW:
TREND : SIDEWAYS
RESIST 2: 4120
RESIST 1:4080
SUP 1: 4000
SUP 2: 3950

CS NATURAL GAS (MAR) OVERVIEW:
TREND : SIDEWAYS
RESIST 2: 200.00
RESIST 1: 197.00
SUP 1: 192.00
SUP 2: 190.00

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